Blues before Red Nepal

By SURENDRA PHUYAL
The election is finally over. And there’s euphoria in the air particularly after the ‘revolutionary’ Maoist victory. Reason? Even before the new constitution of New Nepal is drafted the Red Vision is already out — the “Vision 10, 20, 40” and so on, suggesting that Nepal within a span of just 40 years will be amongst the richest countries in the world — a la Switzerland!
The Maoist dream deserves to be applauded in that Nepal continues to remain mired in debilitating poverty — shackled by, among scores of other things, bad governance, corruption, instability, deep-rooted social inequalities, new insurgencies and, worst of all, lawlessness and the culture of impunity.
Ground realities: Even after the historic and “peaceful” election to the Constituent Assembly that had 61 percent voters’ turnout, the examples of impunity are everywhere around the country — and for all to see. An example: some ‘Janata’ thrashed Finance Minister Ram Sharan Mahat after his election victory in Nuwakot. Let alone pre- and post-election violence, incidents of crime are on the rise as before.
In both urban and rural centers, people are being intimidated, abducted, robbed and even murdered thanks to political allegiances that perpetrators of such crimes often owe to parties. Against such backdrop — and now that the election is over, people’s expectations appear to be very high.
High hopes: Hopes of the ruling class as well as the ruled — or, to put it in Marxist-Maoist terms, the bourgeoisie and the proletariats, the exploiters as well as the exploited — are so high that the election will guarantee political stability; that it will restore lasting peace; that it will bring in investments, development and relief to the needy; and that it will usher Nepal into a new era of caste- and region-based federalism — and even right to self determination.
The list can be longer. But what’s clear is that the newly elected CA has a Herculean task to accomplish, failing which the “empowered” people will surprise the world the same way they did on April 10; that is, if they are allowed to vote again as promised by the SPAM (six party alliance plus Maoist).
As things stand now, the first parliamentary election will be held after two-and-a-half years.
Hurdles: For now, the Maoists have emerged victorious. The former rebel leaders say they want to immediately declare Nepal republic, thereby throwing the 240-year-old institution of monarchy into the dustbin of history; lead the new transitional government and carve the destiny of the nation by writing the country’s first “truly people’s” constitution.
While that mission is sure to take a lot of time, probably more than expected, there are immediate existential challenges the new government must overcome. In order to survive in power, the new government must deliver, and make sure that there’s smooth supply of everything from petroleum fuel and gas to basic commodities such as cereals and vegetables.
And all that stuff at subsidized and affordable price.
Without any failure, the new helmsman must also make sure that the petroleum price are not hiked as per the international market price ($ 107 per barrel and rising). Voters, or consumers, will also expect uninterrupted supply of electricity; end to frequent highway blockades; and a peaceful environment for tourism and several other indigenous industries to flourish.
Monarchy: At the first meeting of the CA itself — and, quite interestingly without any voting whatsoever — the new Maoist-led CA will bid farewell to monarchy, if top Maoist leaders’ version is anything to go by. The leaders also claim that several foreign powers too have favored some kind of “honorable exit” to monarchy.
As secret negotiations continue, there are also talks of converting Nepal into a republic with monarchy enjoying some “social, economical and cultural privilege”. Out on the streets and far-flung villages, ordinary people have been told: end of monarchy and establishment of republic will guarantee durable peace and prosperity in the country.
Again, if the newly elected politicos — most of them unsurprisingly suffering from foot-in-mouth disease — fail to deliver on their promises even in the new republic called Nepal, things could fall apart.
Nepal Army: The last thing the new government wants to mess around with is the Nepal Army, which, until not so long ago revered the institution of monarchy as its guardian. Now guardian-less, the Army maintains it is ready to follow the orders of any government in power. Common sense would expect it to follow the orders of a popularly elected government, in this case that of the likely CPN-Maoist-led new government. The issue of integrating former Maoist combatants into the NA could be a tricky one.
But Prachanda has promised “wonders” on this front too.
Far from dictating their terms on the issue of army integration, many analysts suggest, the Maoist needs to consider other options: such as creating an industrial security force or national parks protection force.
Then there’s the touchy issue of what to do with the unpopular – or popular? — YCL, the young communist league.
Several top SPAM leaders including GP Koirala and Madhav Nepal have demanded that the YCL be dissolved — a demand many Maoist leaders appear to have taken with a pinch of salt.
For now, for the Comrades and the non-Reds, the challenges are just multiplying. Having cast their votes, people want to see changes. But lest we forget, CA election was just another step in Nepal’s peace and democratization process; it was a means not an end. Only by working together, and accommodating opposing forces, the process can move forward.
Failing which, it always risks collapse.
[The author can be reached at nepal.surendra@gmail.com] (Kantipuronline)